Can war with China be prevented?

China's 'cold war' with USA and neighboring India is getting more intense. It also seems that Chinese President Xi Jinping is opting for the flight forward. War with China is imminent. Can this disaster be prevented?

Indian War with China: China becomes isolated

The Trump administration's campaign to isolate China appears to be successful. Only a limited number of weaker states now support China. In addition to Russia's occasional ally, North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and increasingly Turkey.

The Chinese attack on the Indian border region of Ladakh has caused a lot of bad blood in India. And stir up the nationalist fire in the largest democracy in the world. Xi had expected the poorer southern neighbor to give in quickly. Weaker states like Nepal have already done so. Like India in the fifties. This turned out to be a huge miscalculation. Because nuclear power India hit back painfully. Thus came an economic boycott and military operation [1].
China can, however, pinch off India's two largest rivers, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, as desired. The sources of these rivers lie within the China-controlled Tibetan plateau.

Zi's boycott of Australia [2] has also not had the desired effect so far. Australia still refuses to submit to China. Even though the damage is great. The Australians sought and found alternative outlets for their agricultural products and coal in rival India [3]. More and more companies consider China too risky and are moving their production from China to Vietnam.

More and more grumbling

In fact, Xi can only write one success to his name. Because he managed to equalize Hong Kong, despite massive protests. The Trump administration took advantage of this to present China as a brutal dictatorship. And to strip Hong Kong's “most favored nation” status.

The grumbling among the Chinese population is gradually increasing. Especially among the elite. Because these have now lost the convenient route via Hong Kong. Xi's policy of confrontation does not make international friends either [4]. No wonder, then, that Xi is now committed to harsh repression. Which already cost the flamboyant multi-billionaire Jack Ma the head [5]. There are rumors that Ma is being held in a re-education center, or is keeping herself quiet for a while.

Xi is also committed to the military. The Communist Party is increasing its grip on the People's Liberation Army. According to persistent rumors, the party even has soldiers outfitted with remote-controlled suicide helmets. Their commander can use a remote control to blow up captured soldiers. [6]

The Taiwanese military is small, but ultra-modern. So well prepared for war with China. Source: Wikimedia Commons

War with China for Taiwan

The independent island state Taiwan has been around since the fleeing of hereditary enemy Kwo Min Tang to the island in the late 1940s. a thorn in the side of the autocrats in Beijing. Certainly, now that Taiwan is a prosperous democracy. One of the few countries, too, that effectively addressed the covid-19 crisis in 2020. And it gets more and more prestige because of it.

After the equalization of Hong Kong, Taiwan, this makes a rewarding next object China to incorporate. And the superiority of the Chinese Communist Party, and of course that of the “Xi Jinping Diplomatic ThinkingBy Great Helmsman Xi, to show to the world. Observers in Taiwan are already seeing the downpour [7]. Now USA on the brink of civil war state, the attention of the Usans is turned inward. This creates an ideal opportunity for Xi to take over Taiwan. And to pump its popularity in China to stratospheric proportions. This makes 2021 a dangerous year.

How does war become unattractive?

However, the Taiwanese are armed to the teeth with state of the art weapons. And are reluctant to share Hong Kong's fate. Without a struggle, Xi's plans will not succeed. Certainly not, now that Usa has sold billions of state-of-the-art weapons to Taiwan. And the longer the war lasts, the more opportunities for Usa and other countries, such as Japan or Australia, to save the Taiwanese from the war with China. Or, even better, prevent this war from breaking out. Because, as the founder of strategic sciences, Sun Tzu teaches, the best victory is victory without war.

Sources
1. Slaying the dragon: 71% Indians boycotted Chinese goods this Diwali, Business Standard, 2020
2. Trade war: How China will derail Australia in 2021, News.com.au, 2020
3. Australia and India Economic Relations: The Stars Have Aligned, The Diplomat (2020)
4. How Xi Jinping Blew It, The Atlantic, 2020
5. Jack Ma was China's most vocal billionaire. Then he vanished, Wired.com, 2021
6. https://archive.is/gJhXB (backup, in simplified Chinese), quoted in Epoch Times
7. Ying-Yu Lin, China's Military Actions Against Taiwan in 2021: What to Expect, TheDiplomat, 2021

Leave a Comment

English