Anyone who is not yet convinced of the incompetence of the current political leadership in Europe and the United States will now receive the evidence on a silver platter. By cutting all escape routes for Gaddafi and even taking the man to the international court, the European elite has created the recipe for a massacre.
Libya: Total Humiliation of NATO
Libya, as before Afghanistan, is by no means a highlight of NATO action. Some NATO countries, including Germany, are very wise not to get involved in this hornet's nest. Other countries, including the Netherlands, must participate half-heartedly to remain credible in American eyes and to safeguard Shell's oil interests in the new Libya. Belgium (actually piloted into the war by a caretaker cabinet), the US, France and Great Britain do bomb. Its effectiveness is remarkably low. The insurgents fail to break out of their strongholds to the east and Misrata. A stalemate arises: in the parts of the country where Gaddafi still has considerable popular support, he remains lord and master.
To prosecute Gaddafi as a war criminal is a huge blunder
This was followed by another fateful mistake. The US, England and France have now pushed through the Security Council that Gaddafi is being prosecuted as a war criminal. First, they have reduced their room for maneuver (just like Gaddafi's) to zero. They cannot go back; Going to negotiate with a war criminal means total loss of face. For Gaddafi it is now there or there. If he wins, he can easily sell his oil to the new superpowers of China or India, and piss off the hated Westerners. If he loses, he knows he will have to run for the rest of his life. He is only safe in Libya itself. No wonder Gaddafi continues to fight. His supporters also have dirty hands. They know the insurgents can drink their blood and are extremely violent, so watch out for defecting.
Second, in the eyes of many non-Westerners, this rightly demonstrates NATO's hypocrisy. Potentates who have done far worse things than Gaddafi, think of the murderous Saleh and the Bahrain regime, are backed by the west: Saleh for tackling Al Qaeda to protect the Saudi oil fields, the Bahraini Emir for keeping Iran away from the strategic extremely important island just off the coast of the largest (Saudi) oil field in the world.
The way in which Gaddafi gives NATO a check, therefore arouses a lot of sympathy among non-Westerners. So at his demise, Gaddafi finally achieves what he has dreamed of all his life: becoming the hero of the Arab and the Third World.
Two possible outcomes
The insurgents are an irregular army. NATO can only win this conflict by deploying ground forces or secretly engaging mercenaries to fight. The first option will claim many casualties among NATO forces. The latter option is difficult to keep a secret. Another option is to have a regional head of state who is a sworn enemy of Gaddafi (and there are quite a few) in the army. Here too, there are the necessary snags, such as the non-intervention principle. There is also no strategic interest in overrunning Gaddafi for other regional powers, with the possible exception of the afflicted Egyptians.
The last option is that Gaddafi manages to prolong the conflict for long enough. Economically, Western countries are in serious trouble, while the economy in emerging countries is growing rapidly. Domestic resistance in NATO countries to the costly and deadly bombing will increase. If Russia, China or India secretly or openly support Gaddafi, they can achieve multiple strategic goals: weakening and losing face of the powerful west as well as providing the necessary economic benefits.